Well, this is my first post so I might as well lead with what I know best: statistics. Gather 'round all ye derby stats geeks who happen onto this post somehow. I'd like to tell you about stat ideas I've come up with in an attempt to further the understanding of modern, flat track roller derby.
Let's start with a stat I call "Initial Pack Strength" or iPS. Basically, it's the number of pack skaters (pivot + blockers) on the track at the start of the jam. If you take the iPS for each team, you can also see who has the numbers advantage in the pack before the jammers are released. This is a related stat I call "Initial Pack Advantage" or iPA.
So, iPA = (your iPS) - (opponent's iPS). It's essentially a differential for the pack strength of both teams. +1 means you outnumber your opponent by 1 skater. -2 represents your pack being outnumbered by 2 blockers.
In tracking this, it has become very apparent to me that pack advantage matters a lot. I don't have any specific data ready to give you right now, but logic dictates that pack advantage = easier to succeed in roller derby. So, when a jammer grabs lead or even forces a 0-0 jam when her pack is outnumbered, it's a win. You can even take the total iPA in all of the jams and weigh it against her statistics to see just how well she did with what was dealt her.
"Jammer X only grabbed lead 3 out of 7 times, but she has a total iPA of -5. That's pretty damn good considering she was constantly outnumbered."
"Jammer Y may have gotten lead 7 of 10 times, but she was usually on the advantage. Her total iPA was +9, so a 70% lead jam percentage isn't anything special."
-But that kind of analysis begs the question: What is average? What can you realistically expect to get out of a pack advantage? Well, that's a question I've been thinking a lot about lately. I have a possible attempt to solve it in mind, but it will take a lot of work. If I decide to do it, you can expect a series of posts about it.
My main purpose for tracking these stats is to try and take the situation into account when analyzing skaters, lines, and jams. If your jammer takes lead when facing a 4-pack and only aided by a 2-pack, it's a big play. On the other side, if your pack surrenders lead with a +2 iPA, that's a definite problem.
Logically, you'd also think the best teams are the ones who can operate well when outnumbered. Every roller derby bout played by WFTDA rules sees an increase in penalties in the second half. The teams who manage their penalties well, and those who perform well with smaller packs, are the teams who succeed. Obviously, endurance and conditioning matter a lot to a team's performance in the second period. All things being equal though (such as intraleague season or high level tournament play), it might be more accurate to think of a team as "manages penalties and plays well short-handed" rather than the cliché: "second half team."
In my opinion, pack strength and advantage statistics are definitely worth looking at when trying to figure out how skaters or lines perform based on the situations they are in, and in examining why teams excel or struggle in the second period.
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